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It was two months ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow just three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?

This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have piled up.

According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus United.

The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still find their top level.

• The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.