Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
